pokemon.comIt is great to be back with you guys – it’s been over a month since we last collaborated together!
There have been many ideas bouncing around in my head, but ultimately today I have decided to talk about undefined metagames, and the Cities metagame in particular along with some decklists.
Real quick though, how awesome has it been to have this diverse UG lineup so far in November? Talk about a great compilation of talent.
Table of Contents
(Click to be taken directly to that section and press back on your browser to return here.)
- The Format of the Far East
- Deciphering an “Unown” Metagame
- Major Matchups
- Minor Matchups
- Results from the First Weekend of Cities
- Cities Week 1 Tiers
- Decklists
The Format of the Far East
pokebeach.comIn the last two years, the rate at which Japanese metagame information has been leaked to the rest of the playing world has accelerated to unbelievable heights, and we get access to Japanese tournament results in record times. The newfound availability of this once classified information has certainly changed the way we go about testing.
And as always, the Western player base gets a preview of future cards in the form of Japanese translations. The combination of these two factors opens the door to “theorymoning” and “hype trains.” This pushes our future formats to an abnormally established state, for what they really should be (which is untested waters).
However, for every time the leaked information produces a legitimate insight into the next meta, the leaked information blows up in our faces. Two glaring and recent examples are LostGar and Garchomp/Altaria. Yet, you still hear people say things like:
“Our meta begins where the Japanese meta ends.”
I get the sentiment behind those statements. The idea is that the Japanese player base has “weeded” out the bad ideas from the potential format, and we are spared that process. The line of reasoning indicates the Japanese have done the base work of developing the format’s foundation, and we get to push that format to the next level.
Sometimes, that is certainly true. Yet, I do not believe this is one of those times. The Japanese meta that developed for BLW–BCR included cards like Ether, Escape Rope, and Virbank City Gym. Every single Top 4 deck from a recent Japanese Battle Carnival tournament ran the “EtherDex” engine (Ether + Pokédex). Well, we did not get those cards.
Because TPCi decided to remove those cards from Boundaries Crossed, this new format is definitely a time where the Japanese format results may be misleading. The culminate result was that the first week of Cities had an unsettled metagame. So, what do you do when you are preparing to face an “unown” meta?
Deciphering an “Unown” Metagame
When entering an unknown metagame (such as this Cities format), it is best to test anything and everything and see what sticks. I believe the normal dichotomous thinking of “established” archetype versus rogue is faulty. The meta is not established so there are no true “established” or “rogue” decks.
There are merely a lot of ideas floating around out there waiting to be discovered, tested, refined, and arranged in some sort of power structure.
So, how are ideas discovered? There are ultimately four main ways I organize my thought process in the discovery phase.
(Erik Nance really did a great job last week demonstrating how to build a competitive rogue deck.)
Method A
The first and most obvious method of discovery is to take previously successful archetypes and update them for the new card pool. Sometimes a change in the available card pool has profound effects on existing decks and their viability.
Method B
The second method is to look at unsuccessful archetypes from the previous format and see if they may be updated with new cards to improve their standing. A recent example of this method would be adding Magnezone Prime to TyRam after the advent of Ultra Ball. Prior to Ultra Ball, Ninetales HS was the preferred method of starting the Afterburner engine.
pokemon-paradijs.comHowever, when more and more 130+ HP Pokémon infiltrated the game, Typhlosion Prime needed a better damage output and more draw power. Ultra Ball offered more discarding options and allowed a two Energy types to run with Typhlosion.
Under this method, all of the “core” components (normally the Pokémon needed to create the deck) were already in the format. Yet, new Trainers allow those cards to mesh together in a previously impossible way.
Additionally, an unsuccessful archetype is a deck that had all of the “core” components in the previous format, but saw next to zero success and faded into the background. A current example of an unsuccessful archetype would be Durant. All the core components exist for Durant, but the BLW–DRE format was inhospitable to the deck.
Method C
Sometimes old strategies may be combined with new core cards to create distinct new decks. A previous example of this would be the LostVileGar deck that succeeded at the ECC a couple years ago.
That deck combined the new win condition with a tried and true Item locking strategy. The result was a successful foray into combining new and old decks. A completely new deck formed from the merger of old cards and new cards, with each being core to the deck’s strategy.
These are ultimately new decks that form from the combination of old and new core components.
Method D
The last method of discovery is finding completely new decks that develop from the newly released cards. A prime example in the current format is Blastoise/Keldeo-EX. The core the deck consists of cards we did not have before the latest set came out.
So, what should our testing line up have looked like when using these various discovery techniques? Well here is a non-exhaustive table to demonstrate:
| Method A | Method B | Method C | Method D |
| Hydreigon / DarkraiRayEelsZeels
MewtwoEels Ho-Oh EX Tornadus Donk Traditional Empoleon Garbodor Darkrai / Terrakion Darkrai / Mewtwo Darkrai / Sableye / Hammers Speed Darkrai |
DurantLilligant / GarbodorAccelgor / Garbodor
Zoroark Excadrill |
Empoleon / Dusknoir BCRGarbodor / Landorus-EXLandorus / Mewtwo
Landorus / Toolbox Swoobat BCR / Gardevoir NXD Ditto BCR / Reuniclus / Regigigas / Kyurem |
Blastoise BCR / Keldeo-EXStoutland BCRCelebi-EX / Charizard BCR
Speed Charizard Vileplume BCR Crustle BCR |
The next step after discovery would be to work out base lists for each of those decks and then grind away as many games as possible. You want to start with base lists because you want to see how the decks generally interact with each other. Once you can gauge those interactions, you can move onto variants of each of the decks.
An obvious starting point for your testing regiment is beginning with the old Tier 1 decks. I know I urge you to abandon the thought that one deck is a “meta” deck and that others are not, but you have to start somewhere. So, with that in mind I would start with Darkrai/Hydreigon, RayEels, and Darkrai EX variants.
I would test them against each other and see how they no interact between themselves, and mark down what I observed such as:
- RayEels gets more consistent, but so does each of the other decks.
- Sableye has become even more broken because of two great ACE SPEC cards it allows us to use multiple times.
- Hydreigon might have gained the most because of the newfound consistency.
And the testing should rage on.
After you have tested the previous format’s Tier 1 decks, I tend to move onto the brand new decks that develop exclusively from the new set (Method D). Then I would move onto the Method B and Method C decks and see where they fit in.
I am not going to go into great detail on my lists from testing here, but I will give you the lists toward the end of the article with brief explanations of card choices. The important part for now is that we have a basic grasp of deck interactions going into the “unown” meta.
Major Matchups
Darkrai/Hydreigon vs. Keldeo/Blastoise
I want to open by stating that I have grown increasingly frustrated with Hydreigon. I know that it is a good deck, but I feel as though it is limited in its coverage options. The deck can be geared toward consistently beating Landorus-EX, RayEels, or Blastoise/Keldeo-EX.
However, any one version of the deck struggles to beat all three consistently. Therefore, I believe correctly guessing the metagame is crucial in having success with Hydreigon.
If you want to beat Keldeo/Blastoise, you need several tools. You need at least one Shaymin EX. The card is just too good against Keldeo and Blastoise to avoid. It can either close out games after N’ing your opponent to four or fewer cards or it can be a simple way to keep up in the mid-game prize exchange.
Mewtwo EX is also very good against Keldeo-EX. When your opponent overextends with Keldeo’s Energy attachments to be able to 1HKO Darkrai or Hydreigon, you need Mewtwo to answer the threat easily.
Sigilyph DRX can be very good against Blastoise/Keldeo because if your opponent does not run the Keldeo BCR 47, he will have to either burn a Catcher to take a prize or use Blastoise to KO Sigilyph. However, Hydreigon can eat Blastoise for lunch in a head-to-head throw down.
Finally, Dark Claw significantly helps in this matchup. With Dark Claw you can snipe Blastoise for 30 with Night Spear and then KO Blastoise with a 110 damage Night Spear on the next turn.
Alternatively, if you are a Blastoise/Keldeo player you really want access to two cards in this matchup. First, you want Keldeo BCR 47 because it is a great attacker in its own right and it efficiently deals with Sigilyph.
Secondly, you want your own Mewtwo EXs to deal with simple Mewtwo exchanges.
Ultimately, I believe this matchup tends to float around 60-40 for Hydreigon if you are playing to directly beat Keldeo. However, the matchup quickly swings to 60-40 for Keldeo if the Hydreigon deck is geared toward beating the other decks. Therefore, on the composite I would call the matchup about even.
Hydreigon/Darkrai vs. RayEels
One of the biggest things about this game is the prevalence Landorus-EX in the format. Because Landorus-EX will be played, the Darkness type Deino is no longer the safe play. That forces Hydreigon players into choosing between taking a risk against Landorus or taking a risk against Rayquaza DRX.
That is a bonus for RayEel players. It allows a RayEels player to take more easy Prizes with regular Rayquaza against Deinos. Additionally, if you can keep your Eels alive long enough, Rayquaza EX can take out any Pokémon in the Hydreigon deck.
pokemon-paradijs.comThe one big change is that the Fliptini + Thunderwave stall tactics might not work as often as in the past because the surprise factor is gone.
The added consistency of Hydreigon from Computer Search and Skyla makes the matchup a little closer, but ultimately I believe this match to be 55-45 for RayEels.
Blastoise/Keldeo-EX versus RayEels
I personally believe this matchup boils down to few things.
The first factor is which deck can set up faster. RayEels essentially needs five cards to get its field set up. RayEels needs two Tynamos, two Eelektriks, and one Rayquaza EX. Blastoise/Keldeo needs four cards to set its field up. It needs one Squirtle, one Blastoise, one Wartortle/Rare Candy, and one Keldeo-EX.
The real key is that the five cards for RayEels are more easily searchable. Four of the pieces are searchable with Level Balls, Ultra Balls, or Computer Search. Three of the pieces in Blastoise are searchable with only Ultra Ball or Computer Search. You simply have more drawable outs to get the five pieces you need in RayEels. I would say in general, the ability to set up is a near draw.
The second factor is how easy it is to maintain your board position. Eelektrik is easier to KO, but being a Stage 1 it is are also easier to get back onto the board. Blastoise is much more difficult to KO, but it is also much more difficult to get back onto the board.
I believe RayEels gets the slight nod because Rayquaza EX can deal with Blastoise easily enough to force Blastoise into a recovery mode.
The third factor is how easy it is to recover from a late game N. This is actually a vital trait to every deck, but it is even more vital to set up decks. Here, both decks may struggle more than the field with late game recovery. Blastoise struggles because it plays exclusively out of the hand. RayEels struggles because it needs two Energy types to function, but it only recovers one Energy type.
Therefore, if the Blastoise player can successfully clear the R Energy from the field and then play N, RayEels may be in more trouble. Ultimately, I believe RayEels recovers from a late game N just a bit easier than Blastoise/Keldeo.
The ability to 1HKO any of Blastoise/Keldeo-EX pieces combined with winning two of the previous three categories gives RayEels the nod over Blastoise/Keldeo 55/45.
RayEels vs. Landorus-based Decks
This game’s dynamic changes drastically depending on what you pair with Landorus-EX. When Landorus-EX is paired with Landorus or some other Energy accelerator like Ho-Oh EX, the matchup becomes increasingly more difficult for RayEels.
Without Ether, Landorus’ effectiveness was severely reduced (although it is still very, very good; just not utterly broken). It can realistically only attack for 150 damage once every two or three turns. RayEels will often be able to deal with late game Landorus-EXs adequately.
Thus, the matchup is normally decided in the crapshoot that is the first four turns. If RayEels can get into the late game, it has a great chance.
However, the chance to be run off the board early on is very high. One thing that can work in for RayEels is the Fliptini stall tactic. However, the matchup still seems to be in Landorus’ favor: 60-40.
Hydreigon/Darkrai vs. Landorus
pokemon-paradijs.comAs I already mentioned, Hydreigon can be teched toward beating Landorus-EX decks successfully. However, you lose viability in your other games. The biggest tools necessary in dealing with Landorus decks are Cresselia-EX, Keldeo-EX, and Potions.
Potions help to nullify the 30 damage Landorus spreads to the bench. This keeps Landorus from piling up damage in large numbers that become difficult for you to handle.
Cresselia-EX is a great Mewtwo counter, which most Landorus-EX decks should be running. Against Sableye decks, the Moonlight Marvel is less effective because your opponent can simply pull off a double Catcher turn to get around the Weakness reduction. Against Landorus, Cresselia will likely land at least two or three shots before going down, while potentially healing itself on your bench.
Keldeo-EX is great in the matchup even without access to W Energy. Due to Weakness, Keldeo 2HKOs Landorus and is difficult for Landorus to 1HKO back.
The game really hinges on a few things:
- How fast you get Hyreigon out.
- If Landorus-EX has an Energy accelerator partner.
- Simply not getting donked.
Ultimately, I think Hydreigon can easily go up 55-45 when geared toward beating Landorus, but it struggles when geared to beat other decks. Overall, this is likely a 50/50 matchup.
Blastoise/Keldeo vs. Landorus
trollandtoad.comEnergy acceleration versus no acceleration. Weakness advantages. Access to a great non-EX attacker. With all of these things on Blastoise’s side, what could possibly go wrong? The answer is Mewtwo. Mewtwo EX can be very good against Keldeo-EX.
So the matchup can hinge on how many Mewtwo the Blastoise player runs. If Blastoise plays two or more, the game likely falls in its direction. Secondarily, the build of Landorus-EX plays a large factor.
The Afro Guarding, Gold Breaking quadruped is actually very good against Keldeo-EX. With Eviolite, it takes five W Energy to score the 1HKO. Conversely, if the Landorus player has placed the 30 spread correctly on Keldeo, Bouffalant can easily deal with Keldeo.
Conversely, Keldeo BCR 47 is very good in this match. For three W Energy, Keldeo gets to 1HKO Landorus-EX. That is a huge benefit to have a non-EX that can easily 1HKO an EX.
Ultimately, the type advantage is too much for Landorus to handle, but the matchup is closer than most people think: 57-43.
Non-Hydreigon Darkrai Decks vs. The Field
I am grouping these decks all together because they are similar in concept, but the alternative attackers swing the matchups greatly.
Darkrai/Fighting
pokemon-paradijs.comThis style of deck is very good against Darkrai/Hydreigon decks. The Fighting inclusion (as either Terrakion or Landorus-EX) gives Hydreigon fits because you can 1HKO the main attacker and prevent the Max Potion shenanigans. If you are playing Darkrai/Landorus, you will have an inherent advantage against Eelektrik decks.
The Fighting partner type decks may struggle against Landorus/Fighting decks because you do nothing substantial against their attackers. This deck may also struggle against Blastoise/Keldeo because Keldeo deals with both Terrakion and Landorus-EX in an efficient manner.
Darkrai/Mewtwo
This deck has the advantage against Blastoise/Keldeo because you have access to an army of Mewtwo to punish Big Keldeos. Then if the Blastoise players uses Mewtwo, you can use Darkrai effectively. Again, Dark Claw is a big bonus in this game because it efficiently deals with Blastoise.
However, this version may struggle against RayEels and Darkrai/Hydreigon (especially if Hydreigon plays Cresselia). Once Hydreigon sets up, this deck struggles to deal with any of its major threats.
Darkrai/Sableye/Hammers
pokemon-paradijs.comThis one is pretty simple. If you hit your Hammers, you will do very well. If you whiff your Hammers, you will not do as well.
Ultimately, those are the main deck interactions you need to know. I firmly believe those will be the most played decks during the next few weeks of Cities, and those decks are candidates for Tier 1 status.
And in summary we have a RPS type situation:
- RayEels beats Blastoise/Keldeo
- Blastoise/Keldeo beats Landorus-EX
- Landorus-EX beats RayEels
With Hydreigon and non-Hydreigon Darkrai decks being anomalies based on your build.
Minor Matchups
The key to successfully moving the metagame forward is to know how the minor decks in the format interact with the major decks of the format. If the circularity of the major decks is broken and one or two begin to outperform the others in a significant way, this opens the door for minor decks to step up and perform well.
I will not go into as much detail as with the major decks, but I will give my opinion on several contenders and how they interact with the major decks.
Ho-Oh
pokemon-paradijs.comThis deck is very good against Landorus-EX because nearly all of its toys (Mewtwo EX, Ho-Oh EX, Tornadus EX, and Tornadus EPO) are good against Landorus-EX. Also, you can use Keldeo with W Energy to really tilt the match up in your favor.
Similarly, you can play Regigigas-EX to deal with RayEels or Terrakion to deal with Darkrai EX. The deck can survive the Blastoise matchup, but it is at a disadvantage.
Ultimately, this deck requires two things to do well. First, you must know what your meta will be. Secondly, you need to hit some heads with Rebirth.
Empoleon
Empoleon may be a player in the meta yet. However, the deck is suffering an identity crisis. Do you play the deck with Dusknoir? Or do you play the deck with Fighting types or with Grass types?
The Dusknoir deck is certainly surprisingly good and fun. Empoleon is already a strong Water type that can hang with Landorus, so the addition of Shaymin EX can cover your Blastoise/Keldeo-EX matchup.
However, Hydreigon is still a thing and you need Fighting type coverage.
Mewtwo/Eelektrik
This deck is similar to RayEels in most of its matchups and how it plays against most decks. One difference is that it can struggle against Hydreigon, especially if Hydreigon is playing Cresselia-EX. If the deck gets past the first few turns against Landorus-EX, you are typically in good shape.
Garbodor
Garbodor can wreck havoc on many of the top decks, but it is easily countered with solid Catcher play and Tool Scrapper.
Additionally, this deck can struggle with Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX. So, if you meta is heavy on Darkrai EX, Hydreigon, Blastoise, and Eelektrik, Garbodor can succeed.
WhiteGuys.dec
To my understanding, Mike Diaz will graciously go in depth with this type of deck at the beginning of December. The basics are that you use Eviolite and Aspertia City Gym to give Colorless types an absurd amount of HP. The obvious candidates for this type of deck are Tornadus EPO, Tornadus EX, Regigigas-EX, Bouffalant BLW 91, and Bouffalant DRX.
I am a strong believer that you need Ho-Oh EX as a support piece for recovery. Basically, these decks can largely be effective against Keldeo decks because of how much energy it takes to score KOs on the attackers. It struggles against RayEels because of the potentially unlimited damage output.
Vileplume
I have not given up on Vileplume like many of my brethren have. I do believe that if the meta every settles down, Vileplume can be a great anti-meta deck.
However, right now there are too many bases that have to be covered for the Plume to do well. This is definitely a card to look into in the furture.
Results from the First Weekend of Cities
wwlp.comIf you are still with me, I applaud you. There is a point to all of that set up material, and here it comes.
I do not have a full picture of the meta because results are still trickling in, but we have a solid number of tournaments reported. We definitely have enough to start our base of knowledge and to detail the first weekend’s meta. Once we have established what the first weekend’s meta looked like, we can use our base knowledge to discover what the possible options are moving forward.
Here are several different looks at the information available. The first table is ordered by the total number of Top 4s a deck has produced. The second table is how many wins each deck has produced.
Results Arranged by Total Top 4s
| Deck | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Total |
| Darkrai EX / Hydreigon | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| Blastoise / Keldeo-EX | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| Landorus-EX / Mewtwo EX / Stuff | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| Darkrai EX / Sableye | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| RayEels | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Other Eels | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Darkrai EX / Mewtwo EX / Stuff | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Mewtwo EX / Terrakion | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| WhiteGuys | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Landorus-EX / Garbodor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Darkrai EX / Landorus-EX or Terrakion | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ho-Oh EX / Mewtwo EX | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Darkrai EX | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Empoleon / Landorus / Dusknoir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Garchomp / Landorus / Mewtwo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Landorus-EX / Tornadus EX | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darkrai EX / Keldeo-EX | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Landorus-EX / Terrakion | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Empoleon / Accelgor | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ho-Oh EX / Landorus | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Flygon BCR / Dusknoir / Landorus / Celebi-EX | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
This table sets quite a picture of the developing power structure. Hydreigon did extremely well getting through the Swiss rounds, but fell off once the Top 4 began to unfold. It only turned 33.3% of its appearances into Top 4 finishes.
Blastoise/Keldeo-EX also pushed itself into the Top 4 at an impressive rate. However, it only turned 40% of those appearances into Top 4 finishes. The other clear distinction to draw is that Landorus-EX is best when paired with Mewtwo EX.
Here, we had 80 data points – a respectable number – to draw conclusions from.
Results Arranged by Total Wins (1st Places)
| Deck | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | Total |
| Landorus-EX / Mewtwo EX / Stuff | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| RayEels | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Darkrai EX / Sableye | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| Mewtwo EX / Terrakion | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Darkrai EX / Hydreigon | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| Blastoise / Keldeo-EX | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| Other Eels | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| WhiteGuys | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Landorus-EX / Garbodor | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Darkrai EX / Landorus-EX or Terrakion | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ho-Oh EX / Mewtwo EX | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Darkrai EX | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Empoleon / Landorus / Dusknoir | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Garchomp / Landorus / Mewtwo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darkrai EX / Mewtwo EX / Stuff | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Landorus-EX / Tornadus EX | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Darkrai EX / Keldeo-EX | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Landorus-EX / Terrakion | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Empoleon / Accelgor | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ho-Oh EX / Landorus | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Flygon BCR / Dusknoir / Landorus / Celebi-EX | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Unlike the total number of Top 4s, we have a limited number of points to full from with regard to wins. We only have 20 points to look at. Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX/Stuff appears to be the real deal when we look into how many wins (3) it gathered and its win percentage (66.7%) in Top 4 matches. RayEels also pulled in a good amount of wins (3) and win percentage (50%).
The other way we can examine the data is by Top 2 matchups. We can look at how many times two decks played in the Top 2, and what the results were. This will eventually give us a better idea about deck matchups.
Unfortunately, after a single weekend of games, we have a very limited number of data points (20 in total) to evaluate and there might only be one or two games between two decks to study. Regardless, here are the 20 reported Top 2 matches:
- Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX over Darkrai EX/Tornadus/Mewtwo EX
- Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX over Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX
- Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX/Terrakion/Tornadus over Mewtwo EX/Terrakion
- Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX/Garbodor over Darkrai EX/Landorus-EX/Terrakion
- Darkrai EX/Landors EX over Blastoise/Keldeo-EX
- Darkrai EX/Sableye/Hammers over Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX/Terrakion/Tornadus
- Darkrai EX/Sableye/Hammers over Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX/Terrakion/Tornadus
- Darkrai EX over Darkrai EX/Sableye/Hammers
- Darkrai EX/Hydreigon over Blastoise/Keldeo-EX
- Blastoise/Keldeo-EX over Darkrai EX/Tornadus/Mewtwo EX
- RayEels over Darkrai EX/Hydreigon
- RayEels over Darkrai EX/Hydreigon
- RayEels over Darkrai EX/Sableye/Tropical Beach
- Zeels over Landorus-EX/Tornadus/Sigilyph
- Empoleon/Landorus-EX/Dusknoir over Darkrai EX/Keldeo-EX
- Ho-Oh EX/Mewtwo EX/Tornadus over Darkrai EX/Hydreigon
- Mewtwo EX/Terrakion over Darkrai EX/Hydreigon
- Mewtwo EX/Terrakion/Shaymin EX over Mewtwo EX/Terrakion/Shaymin EX
- Garchomp/Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX over Blastoise/Keldeo-EX
- Tornadus EX/Eviolite/Aspertia City Gym/Ho-Oh EX (WhiteGuys) over WhiteGuys
Some information gained from the previous list :
- All of RayEels wins were against Darkrai EX decks, with two being Darkrai EX/Hydreigon decks.
- Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX’s wins were not against Blastoise/Keldeo-EX decks, arguably its worst matchup.
When the season gets deeper, we will be able to collect more data points in this manner. The meta will consolidate and we will have a better chance at gleaning more meaningful information from Top 2 pairs.
I merely wanted to expose you to this type of information if you have not considered it before. After all, real tournament style data generally outweighs private testing.
There are two other ways I primarily look at the data and I mentioned them earlier. I look at the percentage of Top 4 slots a deck takes and the Top 4 win percentage.
Top 4 Percentage (Makeup)
| Deck | Top 4 Percentage |
| Darkrai EX / Hydreigon | 19% |
| Blastoise / Keldeo-EX | 13% |
| Landorus-EX / Mewtwo EX / Stuff | 11% |
| Darkrai EX / Sableye | 9% |
| RayEels | 8% |
| Other Eels | 6% |
| Darkrai EX / Mewtwo EX / Stuff | 6% |
| Mewtwo EX / Terrakion | 5% |
| Landorus-EX / Garbodor | 4% |
| WhiteGuys | 4% |
| Darkrai EX / Landorus-EX or Terrakion | 3% |
| Ho-Oh EX / Mewtwo EX | 3% |
| Darkrai EX | 1% |
| Empoleon / Landorus / Dusknoir | 1% |
| Garchomp / Mewtwo EX / Landorus-EX | 1% |
| Landorus-EX / Tornadus EX | 1% |
| Landorus-EX / Terrakion | 1% |
| Darkrai EX / Keldeo-EX | 1% |
| Empoleon / Accelgor | 1% |
| Ho-Oh EX / Landorus | 1% |
| Flygon BCR / Dusknoir / Landorus / Celebi-EX | 1% |
This table demonstrates the same thing as the total Top 4 appearances approach of the very first table. This method’s usefulness is differentiated from the mere number of Top 4 placements when you have multiple sets of data to compare.
For instance, right now we have 80 Top 4 data points from a single weekend. Because we are evaluating a single set of data we could simply use the total number of Top 4 places. However, say next week there are 160 Top 4 data points to utilize from 40 City Championships.
Well, then we cannot simply compare the raw number of Top 4 placements from our current data set and the next data set. However, the percentages are easily comparable.
Top 4 Win Percentage
| Deck | Top 4 Win Percentage |
| Mewtwo EX / Terrakion | 100% |
| Darkrai EX / Landorus-EX or Terrakion | 100% |
| Darkrai EX | 100% |
| Empoleon / Landorus / Dusknoir | 100% |
| Garchomp / Mewtwo EX / Landorus-EX | 100% |
| Landorus-EX / Tornadus EX | 100% |
| Darkrai EX / Keldeo-EX | 100% |
| Landorus-EX / Mewtwo EX / Stuff | 67% |
| WhiteGuys | 67% |
| Darkrai EX / Sableye | 57% |
| RayEels | 50% |
| Ho-Oh EX / Mewtwo EX | 50% |
| Blastoise / Keldeo-EX | 40% |
| Darkrai EX / Mewtwo EX / Stuff | 40% |
| Landorus-EX / Garbodor | 33% |
| Darkrai EX / Hydreigon | 33% |
| Other Eels | 20% |
| Landorus-EX / Terrakion | 0% |
| Darkrai EX / Keldeo-EX | 0% |
| Empoleon / Accelgor | 0% |
| Ho-Oh EX / Landorus | 0% |
| Flygon / Dusknoir / Landorus / Celebi | 0% |
This really demonstrates a deck’s ability to “win it all,” instead of merely “getting into the cut.” Normally, anything over 50% is a great position to be in.
Of course, you need to synthesize all the available data into a coherent bottom line evaluation. There is no magic formula to determine the final structure and this is why developing tier lists is both a science and an art. Sabermetrics can only get you so far.
Now, there is often a raging argument on how we should arrange the tiers. Should we place a greater emphasis on intrinsic deck strength? Or, should we place a greater value on expectancy if play?
In other words, should we worry about the strength of a deck or the probability of the deck showing up? I honestly, believe the lists have to be a melding of the two.
Cities Week 1 Tiers
Basic on that though pattern, here is how I would arrange my Week 1 tier lists:
Tier 3
These are the decks that are at 1% or less of the Top 4 placement tests and do not have a win.
- Landorus-EX/Tornadus EX
- Landorus-EX/Terrakion
- Empoleon/Accelgor
- Ho-Oh EX/Landorus
- Flygon/Dusknoir/Landorus/Celebi
Tier 2
pokemon-paradijs.comAll of these decks had more than 1% of the Top 4 placements. The 1% watermark is just a natural breaking point in our analysis. Otherwise the deck has at least one win if it was at 1% or below in the Top 4 placement test.
- Other Eels
- Garchomp/Mewtwo EX/Landorus-EX
- Empoleon/Landorus-EX/Dusknoir
- Darkrai EX
- Darkrai EX/Mewtwo EX
- Darkrai EX/Fighting
- Ho-Oh EX/Mewtwo EX
- WhiteGuys
- Landorus-EX/Garbodor
- Mewtwo EX/Terrakion
Tier 1.5
- RayEels: I personally, feel this deck is just holding onto its top spot because of the prevalence of Landorus-EX. However, tying for the outright victories is too hard to ignore.
- Darkrai EX/Sableye: This deck has solid all around statistics. It had a solid Top 4 win percentage, a solid Top 4 placement, and two wins. However, basing your hopes on flips is always a risky proposition.
Tier 1
Darkrai EX/Hydreigon: This deck is put into the Tier 1 because of the overwhelming amount of Top 4 placements, despite its low Top 4 win percentage.- Blastoise/Keldeo-EX: This deck deserves to be this high because of the large number that made the Top 4.
- Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX: This deck has a large Top 4 percentage and won two thirds of its Top 4.
Ideally we would have several weeks of information and could compare across the weeks. That would show us how the meta is developing from an unknown entity into an established hierarchy.
But even with this limited information in hand, we can create a solid plan of attack for the second week of City Championships.
Based on the current data, Blastoise/Keldeo-EX is a may be a little dangerous to play in the coming week. RayEels and Darkrai EX/Hydreigon were prevalent and arguably more successful in the first week (based on wins or Top 4s). Blastoise/Keldeo-EX can struggle with those matchups. However, Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX with some type of Energy accelerator (i.e. Ho-Oh EX) could be a good play.
Additionally, Ho-Oh EX/Mewtwo EX/Tornadus EX is in a solid position if the first week’s meta holds true. All three components deal with Landorus-EX well. Mewtwo EX gives Ho-Oh some protection from Keldeo-EX. The real problem you have to counter is Hydreigon, but you can tech Landorus-EX or Terrakion (I would go with Terrakion) to help in that matchup.
Or you could go the opposite direction and play Blastoise/Keldeo-EX in an attempt to “jump ahead” of the meta and take advantage of the assumed increase in Landorus-EX decks. The problem here is that often times the meta moves slowly.
More people opt to play what was successful, rather than what will beat the deck that beats the deck that was successful.
What I mean is that people will see Hydreigon/Darkrai EX and RayEels with lots of wins and top placements. So, more people will gravitate to those decks. That opens the door for Landorus to do well.
Then in week three if Landorus-EX did well in week two, the deck will likely see a rise in play. At that point Blastoise/Keldeo-EX becomes a great choice because of the presumed increase in Landorus-EX.
I sincerely hope this is new to some of you and a useful refresher to the rest. In Magic this is known as leveling and it is a useful tactic in all card games. You want to be one step ahead of the curve – no more and no less.
Decklists
In this section, I will simply pour out my current lists. I decided to put all of these at the bottom because I did not want to bore you with them earlier. I will have lists for what I consider both viable decks and some good ole silly/fun decks.
(These are in no particular order.)
RayEels
|
Pokémon – 14 4 Tynamo NVI 38 |
Trainers – 33 4 Skyla
3 Ultra Ball
|
Energy – 13 8 L 5 R |
The Town Map is certainly an experimental card in this build. If I were to replace it, I would likely include Tool Scrapper instead or more consistency in my other lines.
Additionally, I’m not certain a single Emogla does enough work in here. It can be very good though, and since you have 2 SAB and 2 Switch it should not be terribly difficult to get it Active.
Darkrai/Hydreigon
|
Pokémon – 16 2 Deino DRX 93 |
Trainers – 32 4 Professor Juniper
4 Ultra Ball |
Energy – 12 8 D |
If Status lock decks somehow make a comeback, I would add in either Keldeo-EX or Switch to combat that problem. It might actually be wise to trade Sigilyph for a Keldeo-EX from the get go. Another option might be to trade a D Energy for an Energy Search.
The thing I know for sure is that a turn one Skyla for Computer Search and then Junk Hunt is the optimal opening play 99% of the time.
Blastoise/Keldeo
|
Pokémon – 12 3 Squirtle BCR |
Trainers – 33
4 Ultra Ball 2 Eviolite |
Energy – 15 15 W |
The one card I’m not sold on is Eviolite. I could very easily see those slots becoming another Super Rod and I am not sure what else. I know Andrew Wambolt had great success with a Tropical Beach in his list.
Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX
I first want to say that I really like Colin’s list for this deck.
|
Pokémon – 10 |
Trainers – 37 4 Professor Juniper
4 Pokémon Catcher
|
Energy – 13 9 F |
The differences between this list and Colin’s are mainly in the Pokémon lines. I personally feel Mewtwo EX is equally important in this deck. So, I bumped its count up to three. I also play one less Terrakion because I feel it is less important in this deck.
Darkrai EX/Mewtwo EX
|
Pokémon – 9 |
Trainers – 37 4 Professor Juniper
4 Ultra Ball |
Energy – 14 10 D |
I really want my Darkrai decks to be consistent. That is the calling card of those decks in this format. So, we have lots of 4-of’s and 3-of’s. There is some room for singleton cards though because of Computer Search, Skyla, and Junk Hunt.
Darkrai EX/Landorus-EX/Terrakion
|
Pokémon – 9 |
Trainers – 37 4 Professor Juniper
4 Ultra Ball |
Energy – 14 9 D 5 F |
I really like this deck and I believe it can do good things. Potion is obviously the card that stands out in this list. It is actually solid because of both opposing Darkrai EXs and Landorus-EXs. Removing the sniping damage from play, or turning a 2HKO into a 3HKO can be almost just as game breaking as using Max Potion.
Darkrai EX/Sableye/Hammers
|
Pokémon – 6 |
Trainers – 43 4 Professor Juniper
4 Crushing Hammer 2 Energy Switch |
Energy – 11 11 D |
Flippin’ coins and hopin’ for heads.
Garbodor/Landorus-EX/Mewtwo EX
|
Pokémon – 11 |
Trainers – 37 4 Professor Juniper
4 Switch 3 Ultra Ball |
Energy – 12 8 F |
Charizard
|
Pokémon – 11 4 Charmander BCR |
Trainers – 34 4 Professor Juniper
4 Ultra Ball |
Energy – 15 8 R |
I really, really want Charizard to work. I just think he requires too much upkeep even if there was no Keldeo-EX in the format. Shaymin EX is my attempt at reigning in the Blastoise/Keldeo-EX matchup. I do not think it works well enough though.
WhiteGuys.dec
|
Pokémon – 9 3 Tornadus-EX DEX 1 Regigigas-EX |
Trainers – 39 4 Professor Juniper
4 Switch
|
Energy – 12 4 Double Colorless |
Landorus-EX/Flygon/Dusknoir/Celebi-EX
|
Pokémon – 17 3 Landorus-EX |
Trainers – 33
4 Pokémon Catcher |
Energy – 10 10 F |
To be honest, I have not tested this list at all. I saw that a deck with these Pokémon made a Top 4, and I was instantly interested. So, this is the theorymon list I threw together. I think you would want to utilize Ditto to be able to drop Dusknoir out of nowhere. But, I desperately need to test this idea more.
Fun Decks
You might wonder why I am including these lists. Well, I am including them because in the last several months I have learned a valuable lesson from my good friend Edan. Sometimes you just have to enjoy the game.
For many players, simply playing the best decks will net you wins, but it will also zap your enthusiasm for the game. Get out of the rut by playing some fun decks and fall in love with the game again.
Also, they make you more technically sound at the game because you must play each one to perfection to have any chance at success.
Stoutland
|
Pokémon – 10 |
Trainers – 40 4 Professor Juniper 2 N
4 Ultra Ball 4 Rare Candy 3 Giant Cape
|
Energy – 10 6 M |
Stoutland actually has quite a bit of potentinal, if only Catcher was not in the game. Also, Landerous EX is a pain. But, it is a lot of fun to play Supporters while your opponent does not. That is why you must go mono-Stoutland. You do not want to give your opponent Catcher-able options to break the lock.
Rage.dec
|
Pokémon – 13 3 Landorus-EX |
Trainers – 35 4 Professor Juniper
4 Ultra Ball 3 Rare Candy |
Energy – 12 8 F |
pokemon.comThe idea here is to utilize Landorus-EX as a beat stick and to get the damage counters correct on your opponent’s side of the field. Getting multiple Ditto into play is always creates a difficult decision for your opponent. Should he or she attack the Ditto or attack Landorus-EX? If the Ditto stays in play, you can drop Reuniclus in one turn.
Then you can move the correct number of damage counters onto Kyurem or Regigigas-EX and use the Outrage attacks to take 1HKOs. You want to use Kyurem more than Regigigas to help the Prize exchange.
Well, that’s all I have for you today. I hope you enjoyed the article. If you would like to see me back with some week-to-week or possibly geographical metagame breakdowns, remember to “like” the article.
Andy H.
airhawk06
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