Lightning Strikes Twice

VA Regionals Results Rundown and the Game Plan for Week 2

Hey everyone! I’m really excited to bring you all this new article as we are right in the thick of Winter Regionals. Week 1 has come and gone and there is a lot to discuss. The results from Virginia will undoubtedly shake up the metagame and there’s not enough time to test everything! I’m here to help you understand those results, meaningfully shape your testing in these final hours, and give you a couple of interesting decks to think about. Let’s get to it.

Quick Overview of Virginia’s Results

virginia top 8 2016
Top 8 representatives from VA.

Thanks to the power of the internet and social media, we had the standings from Virginia along with decks of all Top 32 competitors mere minutes after Top 8 had been announced. Shout out to Andrew Wamboldt from The Charizard Lounge for compiling these results into an easy-to-read format.

Yveltal and Vespiquen were the two most successful decks to no one’s surprise. Both decks are incredibly consistent and stack up at least evenly against most of the metagame. They both have favorable matchups against Sableye/Garbodor which was one of the most hyped decks going into the first weekend.

Interestingly, even though these two decks accounted for a large percentage of the field, they failed to take even half of the spots in the Top 8 cut. The other 5 decks all had a very solid matchup against at least one of the big two. To me, this says that Yveltal or Vespiquen are good decks to play if you’re looking to come home from Regionals with 15 to 30 CP. If you want the best shot at a run deep into cut, I would suggest trying out a riskier deck.

The next deck on the list is the most intriguing. I completely discounted Eelektrik but Rayquaza-EX DRX was the only partner I ever considered for it. After testing Magnezone/Raikou in the Standard format, I’m not surprised that a Raikou BKT deck could do so well. It trades incredibly nicely with non-EX attackers like Vespiquen and the Night March Pokémon, especially when paired with Assault Vest. We’ll talk more about this deck later.

The rest of the decks in Top 32 were roughly as expected, with the exception of a resurgence of M Rayquaza-EX decks. M Rayquaza-EX almost never beats Vespiquen in my experience, even if the Vespiquen player omits Jolteon AOR. Yveltal is a favorable matchup but it can be a pain if they get the Archeops down early. Most Rayquaza decks run a couple of Hex Maniac but they can be hard to find under Item lock from a Seismitoad-EX. Additionally, Sableye/Garbodor is an incredibly difficult matchup since you typically only play 7 Energy and 3 Mega Turbo. And Night March is just plain unbeatable.

So how did Rayquaza do so well? From what I was told, the most prevalent decks in the field were Seismitoad/Crobat and Yveltal. My thoughts are that the Rayquaza players simply ran into these favorable matchups as well as other decks like Blastoise and Landorus. As I mentioned earlier, sometimes it’s best to pick a risky deck and get carried to Top 8 by hitting enough favorable matchups instead of picking a deck that runs around 50/50 or slightly better on the field.

More telling from the Virginia Regionals results is what did not do well. Most notable was the near absence of two of the top decks in the Expanded format, namely Seismitoad/Giratina and Sableye. Both decks had just one representative in the Top 32 and neither made the Top 8 cut. Why did these decks perform so poorly after being the 4th and 6th most successful decks through Cities?

From what I’ve heard, the field in Virginia was highly saturated with Yveltal and Vespiquen decks. Seismitoad/Giratina and Sableye both have unfavorable matchups against these two decks. While a couple of players were able to use skill and luck to navigate through the first day of competition, the high number of Yveltal and Vespiquen decks proved too much for them to handle on the second day. While I do think that a risky deck is a better choice than a safe one, I don’t think picking a deck with bad matchups against the two most popular decks is ever a good idea.

Blastoise is another deck that did much worse than Cities trends would suggest. However, this is not exactly unexpected. The prospect of a tech Ghetsis in almost any deck makes playing a deck focused on Archie’s incredibly risky. As much as I want Blastoise to be a good play, I just don’t think the metagame is in a favorable position for it.

Now that we’ve covered the decks in the metagame that were expected, let’s take a look at some of the new decks that showed up in Virginia.

The Newcomers

raikou pokemon stadium 3-2leecario.tumblr.com
The most shocking revelation of the weekend.

Raikou/Eelektrik

Pokémon – 15

4 Tynamo NVI 38

4 Eelektrik NVI

1 Eelektross PLB

4 Raikou BKT

1 Shaymin-EX ROS

1 Keldeo-EX

Trainers – 34

4 Professor Sycamore

2 N

1 Colress

1 Lysandre

1 Xerosic

1 AZ

 

4 VS Seeker

4 Ultra Ball

3 Float Stone

3 Assault Vest

2 Level Ball

2 Battle Compressor

1 Super Rod

1 Computer Search

 

4 Rough Seas

Energy – 11

11 L

This seems to be the decklist that Azul Griego, Eric Rodriguez, and Steven Varesko all piloted to Top 32. What an ingenious idea. I’m shocked by how simple this deck is. There’s only 1 attacker (other than the Eelektross, which I’m pleasantly surprised to see that someone finally found a use for), 1 Energy type, and a Trainer lineup almost completely focused on consistency. In a tournament as long as a Regional Championship, it’s easy to see how a deck like this would do well.

Raikou was a perfect attacker for the Regionals metagame. It doesn’t rely on Special Energy, taking away the advantage Sableye and Giratina have against such attackers. It hits Yveltal for Weakness and tanks against Vespiquen decks, at worst trading 1 for 1. Even without an Assault Vest attached, Seismitoad-EX can hardly damage it because of its Ability and Rough Seas. Raikou is definitely a candidate for the perfect attacker as Brit outlined in his article on Tuesday — an efficient, non-EX attacker with a defensive component.

After seeing this list, I noticed several glaring omissions. Here’s how I would construct the list if I were to play it:

Pokémon – 15

2 Tynamo NVI 38

2 Tynamo DEX 45

4 Eelektrik NVI

1 Eelektross PLB

4 Raikou BKT

1 Shaymin-EX ROS

1 Keldeo-EX BCR

Trainers – 35

4 Professor Sycamore

2 N

2 Brigette

1 Colress

1 Lysandre

1 Xerosic

1 Hex Maniac

1 AZ

 

4 VS Seeker

4 Ultra Ball

3 Float Stone

3 Assault Vest

3 Battle Compressor

1 Super Rod

1 Computer Search

 

3 Rough Seas

Energy – 10

10 L

Brigette is an such an obvious inclusion in any deck that attempts to get out a large number of non-Pokémon-EX. It fits into this one especially well as it already runs a high number of Battle Compressor. Cutting Level Ball is a tough pill to swallow but a T1 Brigette for 3 Tynamo alleviates a lot of the use for Level Ball anyway. A 3-1 split between Ultra and Level Ball could considered instead.

I also chose to add a Hex Maniac as a counter to Archeops, something the creators of this deck apparently forgot to account for. With such a high number of Float Stone in this deck and less reliance on Shaymin than most decks, Wobbuffet PHF is another possible inclusion to help you evolve.

tynamos mangapokescans.tumblr.comThe other change I made was swapping out 2 of the NVI Tynamo for 2 DEX ones that have the Spark attack. Both of the different Tynamo have extremely useful attacks in a pinch. The NVI Tynamo was actually instrumental in Ross Cawthon’s 2012 Fort Wayne Regional victory where he used Thunder Wave with Victini NVI 14 to protect himself from attacks on crucial turns. The DEX Tynamo was used at Worlds 2012 to snipe opposing Vileplume twice so an attack from Raikou-EX could finish it off.

Here, I like the option to use Tynamo DEX to finish off a Pokémon-EX with 180 HP that my Raikou could only hit for 170. Even a small change such as this can swing a game or two over the course of 14+ rounds which could be the difference between crossing the threshold for the next phase of top cut.

Raikou/Eelektrik is poised to do very well in Week 2-of Regionals. It makes up for a lack of in-game options with pure consistency. I expect a sizeable percentage of players to try this deck out in the next day or so and discover that it has a lot of solid matchups. Make sure to test against this deck so it doesn’t take you by surprise.

Raichu/Bats

Pokémon – 27

4 Pikachu XY

4 Raichu XY

4 Zubat PLS 53

4 Golbat PHF

2 Crobat PHF

4 Shaymin-EX ROS

2 Feebas FLF

2 Milotic PRC

1 Jirachi XY67

Trainers – 26

3 Professor Sycamore

2 Brigette

1 Colress

1 N

1 Lysandre

1 Hex Maniac

1 AZ

 

4 VS Seeker

4 Ultra Ball

1 Level Ball

1 Sacred Ash

1 Buddy-Buddy Rescue

1 Computer Search

 

4 Sky Field

Energy – 7

4 Double Colorless

3 L

A version of this deck was piloted by Ryan Sabelhaus and Zander Bennett in Virginia. They both made it into the Top 32 and frankly, I’m not quite sure how. Barring any incredibly unusual techs, Raichu has no consistent way to circumvent Archeops’ Ancient Power. For that reason, I’m guessing that they used either Wobbuffet, Evosoda, or Wally in their list. I chose to only include Hex Maniac in this list as way to possibly deal with Archeops but I don’t think it is enough to swing the matchup. If I were to play this deck in a metagame where I expected a lot of Archeops, I would include a Wally in place of the Level Ball.

Most of this list is pretty standard, focusing instead on the consistency needed to succeed at a large Regional Championship. A pair of Brigette can increase the damage output of Circle Circuit at any point in the game, as well as help set up your Bench in the first couple of turns. AZ and Buddy-Buddy Rescue are generally solid cards but are included here for their synergy with Milotic and its Sparkling Ripples Ability. I don’t like using so many basic Energy in a deck like this but the threat of Giratina necessitates their inclusion.

Other than the weakness to Archeops, this deck was incredibly solid for the Expanded metagame. Raichu trades evenly with Vespiquen and Flareon but Golbat and Crobat allow you to win the Prize trade by Knocking Out their Basic forms. You have type advantage over Yveltal and Rayquaza. Jirachi deals with Giratina-EX and you have Milotic and Sacred Ash to allow for multiple Stardusts in a game.

The only inherent weakness that this deck has is Seismitoad-EX. Especially when paired with a Crobat line, I find Quaking Punch almost impossible to deal with. Jirachi can help here but a Crobat and a Hypnotoxic Laser can quickly dispatch it. I wouldn’t worry about teching too heavily for Seismitoad-EX though. The consistency you will have to sacrifice to fit in, for instance, another Jirachi and a Xerosic or two isn’t worth it to potentially swing a matchup you might play once or twice throughout the tournament. In a metagame where Vespiquen is one of the two best decks and Seismitoad only accounted for 5 of the top 32 decks (roughly 16%), Raichu might be a risk worth taking.

Criteria for Week 2

ash ketchum deck list 3-2pokemonscreenshots.tumblr.com
No. 1 requirement: Must beat Yveltal and Bees.

Now that we’ve talked about what decks were popular at Virginia, let’s think about what we’re looking for in a Week 2 play. These criteria will be in order of importance.

1. First and foremost, a favorable matchup against both Yveltal and Vespiquen is required. They have been the most successful decks in the format for months and I would be unsurprised to see them combine to be 50% or more of my matches in Colllinsville.

2. Second, I want to beat the new decks that came out of Virginia (Eelektrik and Raichu). Players seem to gravitate en masse to the newest deck in the metagame. For instance, after players such as Russell LaParre and Greg Sweeney popularized Tyrantrum in Week 2-of Fall Regionals this year, lots of people started testing it and found it to be a very strong deck. This led to me being paired against 3 Tyrantrum in my 9 rounds at Fort Wayne Regionals in Week 3. New decks that generate hype should not be ignored.

3. Third, I’m not incredibly concerned about having a favorable Seismitoad-EX matchup. Vespiquen and Rakiou both beat Seismitoad fairly convincingly and I expect them to be a large part of the field. Even if Seismitoad’s ratio of the field stays the same from Virginia, I expect it to do slightly worse with the new developments in the metagame, making it a deck that I can stomach a bad matchup against.

4. Last, I would like to have a solid Sableye/Garbodor matchup if possible. Sableye underperformed in Virginia which can cause players to think that it is not a threat. I expect some players to attempt to capitalize on this development. For Collinsville especially, I know that Sableye/Garbodor was one of the most popular decks in the St. Louis area for Cities. This is the lowest priority but may be the deciding factor when I’m picking my deck.

Here are a couple of decks that I’ll be testing out in the next day or so that meet those criteria:

Landorus/Crobat

Pokémon – 18

4 Zubat PLS 53

3 Golbat PHF

2 Crobat PHF

3 Landorus-EX

2 Hawlucha FFI

2 Shaymin-EX ROS

1 Dedenne FFI

1 Jirachi XY67

Trainers – 33

4 Professor Sycamore

3 N

2 Colress

1 Xerosic

1 Lysandre

 

4 VS Seeker

4 Ultra Ball

3 Super Scoop Up

3 Focus Sash

2 Muscle Band

2 Head Ringer

1 Super Rod

1 Computer Search

 

2 Fighting Stadium

Energy – 9

5 F

4 Strong

Landorus/Crobat is a deck that I’ve liked for a while but the metagame never develops in a direction that would lead me to play it. It has an incredibly favorable matchup against Vespiquen with spread damage from Bats, snipe damage from Hammerhead, and survivability with Focus Sash. Raikou and Raichu are also very easy to beat due to simple type advantage.

Yveltal is a troublesome matchup. Their Resistance and higher damage output is often too much to deal with. Unfortunately, many Yveltal decks have been including Archeops recently. This completely nullifies any advantage that your Bat Pokémon give you and will make the matchup even harder than usual. The best way to deal with this is just by snipe damage from Landorus, as well as trying to trap it in the Active Spot when the opportunity arises.

xerosic-phantom-forces-phf-110
Because Yveltal is a problem.

This list has two new and seemingly contradictory methods to combat Yveltal. The first is Energy denial, by way of Jirachi XY67 and Xerosic. Stopping their attacks allows you to build damage up on their board and can let you take the lead. These cards also help to deal with a tech Seismitoad-EX that would otherwise run through your board. Please do note that this is typically not enough to beat a dedicated Seismitoad deck.

The second is forcing them to use Evil Ball instead of Y Cyclone. This affords you two major advantages. First, you can clear more Energy off of their board when you manage to pull off a knockout. Second, you can use Dedenne to pull off a knockout out of nowhere. By attaching a Head Ringer to a Yveltal-EX, they won’t be able to use Y Cyclone unless they have 4 Energy attached. Most likely, they’ll be restricted to attaching a Dark and a DCE to use Evil Ball, leading to easy 1HKOs for you. Xerosic also helps here to get rid of a Muscle Band they had attached earlier.

Landorus/Crobat is a consistent deck with very polar matchups. If you manage to hit less than 3 Seismitoad decks at your Regional Championships, you have a great chance to make the second day of competition. Before choosing to play this deck, I would definitely recommend getting in as many test games with this deck as possible if you are unfamiliar with it. Choosing the correct target for your Golbat and Crobat damage as well as your Hammerhead snipes can be tricky and the only way to perfect your game play is practice.

Donphan/Wobbuffet

Pokémon – 16

4 Phanpy PLS

4 Donphan PLS

3 Hawlucha FFI

3 Wobbuffet PHF

1 Eevee AOR

1 Jolteon AOR

Trainers – 34

4 Professor Sycamore

4 Korrina

3 N

2 Lysandre

1 Colress

 

4 VS Seeker

3 Robo Substiture

2 Focus Sash

2 Float Stone

1 Muscle Band

1 Silver Bangle

1 Ultra Ball

1 Professor’s Letter

1 Super Rod

1 Computer Search

 

3 Fighting Stadium

Energy – 10

4 F

4 Strong

2 Double Colorless

Donphan is another deck that should be poised to succeed in the current metagame. Once again, Focus Sash goes a long way toward defeating Vespiquen. Retreating to the Bench and hiding behind a Robo Substitute gives the Vengeance Pokémon a ton of trouble as well. The type advantage that Donphan has over Raikou and Raichu makes those matchups incredibly easy. If the Raichu deck decides to start attacking with Crobat to take advantage of their Resistance, Jolteon can be used to tip the scales back into your favor.

It also does fairly well against Sableye as it consistently 1HKOs Sableye without leaving Energy attached to the Active Pokémon for them to use Team Flare Grunt on. With Super Rod, you usually have enough Energy to close out the game. I had to cut a Muscle Band from the list but I could see adding it back in to make it easier to hit for enough damage to Knock Out Sableye if I’m feeling concerned about the matchup.

wobbuffet-phantom-forces-phf-36
Evolving is pretty important!

Yveltal is once again a problem, although much less so than it is for Landorus. I’ve found Archeops to be very hard to deal with and Hex Maniac didn’t allow me to evolve enough times in a game. In this version, I chose to include Wobbuffet and Float Stone to combat it instead. This detracts from the general consistency of the deck but it has been a very successful way to beat Archeops in my testing.

I had a hard time figuring out exactly which cuts would be least detrimental to fit in the support for Wobbuffet. From the list I presented in my last article, I cut a Hawlucha and could actually see cutting one more if I had anything else that I wanted to fit such as another Focus Sash. Hawlucha is most important when playing against Seismitoad decks but I’m not concerning myself with that matchup at this time. I also decided to cut a Robo Substitute as Wobbuffet is often just as good of a wall, especially in the early game.

Swapping out the Level Ball for an Ultra Ball is another important change that I made. The main reason is to find Wobbuffet at critical points in the game. It’s the only card in the deck that can search it out. I actually want to consider using Brigette in the future to grab the Basic Pokémon that I need early in the game but I’m not sure that I can fit it in without sacrificing even more draw power. Ultra Ball is also important to help you find more Donphan to evolve your Phanpy into when you have a Wobbuffet Active. With it, one Korrina can turn into 2 Donphan — something that Level Ball doesn’t allow for.

Donphan is a very appealing deck for Regionals. It is very consistent, resilient to N, and has answers to most of the decks in the metagame. Once again, it struggles against Seismitoad decks but that’s a loss I’m willing to take. Donphan is also a deck that I feel comfortable piloting at any time. I played it a lot in 2014 at Regionals and Cities so I am confident in my ability to make the correct plays with the deck. If you feel the same about Donphan and you agree with its playability, I think it’s definitely worth considering for this weekend’s Regionals.

An Aside on Content from Years Past

clock analog old 3-2pokemonscreenshots.tumblr.com
Is past content relevant to today’s meta?

A few weeks ago, CelloJake asked this incredibly interesting question on the forums:

>> “Any recommendations on articles that have a parallel to states format?”

I wanted to highlight a few things about how the game was different in the past before answering this question.

Back in the early years of the game, information was not circulated nearly as frequently as it is now. Players did not have access to lists from across the country in the same way that they do now. Metagames were a lot more stagnant and players chose decks that were strong against the decks that other local players were playing. Players got some information from Pojo and PokéGym but that information was inconsistent and often incomplete. Decklists were closely guarded secrets and only the best players had access to the highest quality lists.

Everything changed around 2011, a few years after SixPrizes was created. The Top Cut started creating videos and other content that made information about the game more accessible to the general public. This started a new era where decklists and tournament results are regularly shared. Any player can now go to any number of different websites or YouTube channels and find proven decklists of successful decks instead of being limited to creating a decklist of their own. Additionally, it is easier than ever to see what is doing well across the country and prepare for the popular decks.

By no means am I saying that the game is moving in a bad direction. This development is great for the game; the general level of skill is higher than it has ever been. New players can even get insight from veterans of the game on the deck they want to play and see how it is meant to be piloted. This is highlighted even more by the game becoming simpler than ever. Because of this, players can be successful with a brand new deck as soon as the list is posted online.

For instance, after Florida Regionals last February, Orion Craig posted his Flareon list that he used on Day 1. Three weeks later at my State Championships in Michigan, around 10-15% of the field was near carbon copies of that Flareon deck. Such a development would be completely unheard of before 2011. A new deck being successful in a completely different part of the country can impact the metagame in such a profound way.

My point is this: it is very hard to compare past years to current formats. Even if you ignore the fact that different formats have varying amounts of potentially viable decks and vastly different sizes of card pools, players have access to so much more information now. Formats typically do not develop in similar ways to the way that they used to. General trends stay the same, such as “players will try to counter highly successful decks” or “new, interesting decks will draw lots of attention regardless of their playability in the current metagame.” However, I don’t think an analysis of past formats is worth your time and effort, especially not more than testing out decks and specific matchups in the current format.

That said, there is a lot of content from past years that is worth reading. Jay Hornung in particular put out several incredibly helpful articles for preparing for States. Back in the early 2010s and even before that, he won a State Championship nearly every year. He has discussed how he studies the metagame before States and how to prepare for States in general. Even though this material is 3-4 years old at this point, I still find it to be very helpful and I have reread it every year around this time before I begin my States testing.

Looking even further back, John Kettler created a great article on how to approach large events of any type. If you comb through the Underground archives, you can find other articles that do a similarly good job of talking about the game as a whole. Just don’t spend too much time dwelling on the past!

Conclusion

catsup bottle collinsvillesplendidtable.org
See you in Collinsville — home of the world’s largest catsup bottle.

That’s all I have for you guys today! This article is a bit lighter than my typical offering but I didn’t want to give you all too much to think about. Week 2-of Regionals is less than 48 hours away! There’s just not enough time to test everything.

When in doubt, stick with what you know. The Expanded format has been roughly the same for the past 4 months. Even if you think that your favorite deck from Cities or Fall Regionals isn’t perfect for the metagame, your experience and comfort with the deck will go a long way.

I wish you all the best with any Winter Regional you may be attending. I’ll be in Collinsville this weekend — feel free to say hi and introduce yourself if you see me.

Thanks for reading!

Alex


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