Bringing Heart to Hartford

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Hello once again everyone! Though not much has come to pass in the Pokémon community since I last wrote, I am somewhat happy to report that my overall feelings about both formats have become considerably more optimistic. I still think that I would rate Expanded as being the preferable format of the two, but I think Standard is enjoyable in its own rights. The Supporter pool continues to leave something to be desired, but we will make do for now.

I was able to attend another set of League Cups over the past weekend, and after falling short at my first cup (as noted last article), I was incredibly eager to try to get myself on the board in terms of Championship Points. The format had begun to shift somewhat since the initial few weeks which made making a “correct” choice all the more difficult. Initially, the format was a simple checklist of options asking “how much Metagross-GX will there be?”, “How much Fire will there be?” and so on. I am quite pleased that the metagame is much more diverse than that, and thanks to the rise of fringe options like Ninetales-GX, Vikavolt/Tapu Bulu-GX, and further iterations of Garbodor decks, it is easier to make a “safe” play while risking less on getting the correct matchups.

Intuitive Thoughts: Musing on Metagaming

When trying to predict a metagame, even when one has no prior information about what certain players will be favoring, I think there are a few ways to make safer predictions as to what will be popular. In general, I tend to assume that my area(s) will be on the weaker side or behind in terms of metagame trends.

This is not to say that most these players are bad (though this can certainly be the case), but moreover an observation I have amassed evidence for over my whole career playing in the same area. In my experience, players in the areas where I compete tend to be completely static in terms of what they will play. This means that there is rarely any experimentation in terms of decks or lists and so it is safe (or at least safer) to expect vanilla lists for top tier decks and I think that any player can develop an understanding of what their competition will likely favor.

For instance, I have historically was the only player to mess around with evolutions in the time of big basics like Landorus-EX and Mewtwo-EX (I amassed hundreds and hundreds of points with Blastoise BCR during its legality) or in the Seismitoad-EX/Hypnotoxic Laser formats, I seemed to be the only one who would focus on Quaking Punch while others were much bigger proponents of Dark decks or Donphan. These predictions are incredibly subjective, so I would not recommend anyone following my exact logic to predicting a metagame, but I remain mostly positive that such predictions can be made by any given player.

For instance, if I lived in an area considered more difficult (or containing enough players to have six to seven rounds for every League Cup) I would be much more inclined to expect Gardevoir-GX or some anti-meta choices like a techier Garbodor list or the one the rise Golispod-GX + techs deck.

To shift the conversation back toward my specific tournament over the weekend, my history with various players and general expectations led me to expect a metagame where Fire decks were the most popular with a little bit of Gardevoir and Garbodor peppered in, and almost no likelihood of rogue decks being present. With this in mind, I decided to play Alolan Ninetales.

In this current format, when I try to imagine what a vanilla—but consistent—player would choose to play, the first deck that comes to mind is Volcanion. Thus, I chose Ninetales. I have seen many people experiment around with the deck and no one seems to be convinced that one version is the most optimal way to build it and so the list featured in this section will deviated considerably from one that I will showcase below but both have their merits and I think am a fan of either option.

Let’s look at this initial list that I played:

The base for any given Alolan Ninetales-GX list tends to be the same and so all the usual suspects are present. I added the Gumshoos-GX after talking with Andrew Mahone who had some success with the card at a Cup weeks prior. In theory, it has a fair amount of general utility, but is mostly used to combat a Gardevoir-GX that gets out of control. After playing it, though, I do not think that I would try it again. There are a few other things I would want to try instead, like perhaps a Glaceon-EX or more consistency in additional Guzma, Professor Kukui, and so on, but outside of this card, I was very happy with the list.

Unfortunately, I had some last minute family occurrences and was unable to attend any League Cups this weekend, but I did drag myself to a League Challenge to try to earn any amount of points in the event my final Cup chances go poorly.

Round 1: Golisopod-GX W
Round 2: Metagross-GX/Solgaleo-GX W
Round 3: Golisopod-GX/Garbodor W
Round 4: Rainbow Road W
Round 5: Metagross-GX W
5-0, 1st Place +15

Naturally, I would recommend taking these results with a grain of salt. League Challenges are often small and not as competitive, and while this one was much larger than expected (and only a handful of people smaller than the League Cup I attended at the same store weeks before), Best of One leaves a lot to be desired at times. I am still thankful that my deck performed well and that my prediction for the metagame was incredibly accurate, although I did not play against any of the Fire decks running around.

I believe that Ninetales is slightly to strongly favored against Golisopod-based decks as I won both of these matchups with relative ease. The games against the Metagross decks were peculiar as I would still expect this to be a poor matchup, but their strategy has to change considerably against two copies of the Safeguard Ninetales, which gives you more time to try and execute a huge Espeon-EX play. Rainbow Road, additionally, is probably an unfavored matchup (though not as poor of one as the Xerneas BREAK deck), but using Ice Path-GX does not trip Bisharp’s Retaliate, which my opponent did not realize.

Looking to Hartford, I think the Gardevoir-GX is still my most problematic matchup, and I wish there was a card that could easily respond to Gallade, but for now, I think I would look for the second build of the deck that I will offer below.

Shifting Sands: Top Picks for Hartford

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Standard continues to shift, and I think expectations are beginning to run very high for Hartford at the end of the month. I think as the first big Standard tournament in the United States, it will be incredibly competitive and several new decks have the potential to rise to glory. While I think European players are very good and not worth ignoring, their deck choices tend to be safer or static. Top players like Mees Brenninkmeijer, Tord Reklev, and the Schulz brothers highly favor absurdly consistent lists, which tends to make itself abundantly clear when observing their results.

Contrastingly, there is a much higher likelihood for a US player to adopt a “go big or go home” mentality in terms of deck choice and this is often observable through the members of Team X-Files, with members like Ross Cawthon, Tyler Ninomura, and Mikey Fouchet succeeding with bold plays that are far ahead of the metagame (sometimes too far ahead). Thinking about Hartford specifically, I think the safe assumption will be to expect both the safe players and the riskier ones, and thus the optimal play will probably land somewhere in the middle between both mentalities.

With this in mind, I want to break down my top choices for the event! Let’s jump right in.

#4: Ninetales-GX

Ninetales has always been my favorite Pokémon, and given that I may prefer its Alolan form, it should go without saying that I have a blast playing this deck. I think that in a metagame that is dominated by Fire options and Garbodor decks than this is a great player. I think that it struggles somewhat against Ho-Oh, but I believe the heavier Volcanion decks will be the more popular choice among Fire players—a huge boon to this deck. The Salazzle-focused lists tend to only play 1-2 baby Volcanion which makes its realistic to wall the whole game with the Safeguard Ninetales.

The spread emphasis of the deck can help you defeat Gardevoir-GX, but I think that it is still incredibly difficult to beat. Ninetales thrives because, through one Flying Flip and some Po Town damage, it ought to be able to knockout anything, but the 230 HP of Gardevoir-GX is the only number that the deck will struggle to hit. As a result, Ninetales can just get overrun by one giant Gardevoir. I have seen some players attempt to remedy this with Gumshoos-GX, but Bodybuilding Dumbbells is something worth considering as well. I am a huge fan of this deck and think it has the capacity to beat anything if you draw well enough. Metagross-GX will be this deck’s worst matchup as well, but given the popularity of Fire, I think losing to that deck is a safe option for the time being.

#3: Drampa-GX/Garbodor

Although Drampa-GX/Garbodor does not have any significantly favorable matchups, I think that it has about a 50-50 with everything. That is not appealing to many, but as I’ve written before, I think there is always a solace in being even with everything. Most importantly, you should be pretty content against anything you face, and as a player who has experienced the dropped heart rate of seeing your opponent flip over that color that you did not want to see too many times, it is a much more calming tournament experience to have some chance against anything you face. As such, there are not any tricks hidden within the list and it remains our typical Drampa/Garbodor strategy—swinging hard with Berserk early and then attempting to clean up in the late-game with your devolution options and Trashalanche.

The inclusion of Tapu Fini-GX in these lists is no longer a huge surprise factor but I think it is worth considering as a last chance option against a Gardevoir-GX that gets out of control, or simply using its GX attack to find a big tempo swing at some point in the game (say, if you can immediately neuter a Kiawe with a Guzma + Tapu Storm-GX).

The only difference between my list and the norm is the Judge. You’ll see in many of my lists for Standard that this card tends to be my go-to for supporter slots after the N and Sycamore counts have been completely met. I completely forgot this card was an option in my last article where I pontificated about the options beyond N, Sycamore, and Guzma, and I think it is better than Hala in most instances. The added disruption factor is an added benefit to the deck, and I realistically I foresee scenarios where you can Wonder Tag for Judge on your second or third turn and log down the game early with Judge + Garbotoxin + Righteous Edge—as opposed to a simple N to six.

#2: Gardevoir-GX/Sylveon-GX

While the debate over how to build Gardevoir-GX remains as fierce as ever, I have always been a proponent of Sylveon-GX in the deck. Sylveon, in my opinion, is a much more reliable and consistent way to set-up, and while it can still be disrupted through N, there are less options for that in the format without VS Seeker. Plea-GX, additionally, really does swing your matchup against any Stage 2 deck, and as controversial as it might sound, I think you are only slightly unfavored against Metagross-GX with this list.

I think that my boldest opinion about Gardevoir-GX in general is just that if it draws well enough, it simply cannot lose. If you run hot then you will win the tournament. While many players will likely still favor the Alolan Vulpix and Diancie method of set-up, I would not be surprised to see Gardevoir-GX win Hartford even if the results overall are not favorable toward the deck.

#1 Golisopod-GX/Garbodor

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I think the big story from Bremen was the dominance of this deck. I am still surprised every day that this wacky, Japanese concoction ended up being considerably more than a one-hit wonder. Unlike M Audino and Pyroar/Volcanion from the 2016 World Championships, this Japanese creation has had a lasting impact on our metagame, and I currently believe that this deck is the best and safest option for any player looking forward.

While you are not favored against Fire, I have stolen enough games against the deck to believe that the matchup is only slightly unfavored instead of heavily unfavored. To balance that specific matchup out more, I would recommend swapping out Tapu Fini-GX for a Necrozma-GX. Tapu Fini is included in this deck for the exact same reasons that it sees play in any deck but Necrozma-GX has the potential to swing your matchup against Fire with a fast Black Ray-GX. Even in my dismal list that included Zoroark from my last article, I went 3/2 overall against Fire thanks to Necrozma and thus I am somewhat optimistic that the matchup is close to even with this card.

The main appeal of this deck for me is that I think it is slightly favored versus every other top deck. Most decks are satisfied with a mere even matchup against Gardevoir-GX but through my testing, I think that Golisopod-GX is slightly favored against this deck as well as having an advantage against any other Garbodor variants.

Closing Thoughts

I am saddened to know that I will not be attending Hartford but I greatly look forward to observing the results. I always believe that these “blind” formats tend to be the most rewarding to players who do put the work in to prepare, and while this Regional specifically does have a plethora of results going into it, there are a ton of viable decks and making the right decision will make or break many players over the course of the weekend. I omitted decks like Vikavolt, Greninja, and Espeon-GX/Garbodor from the list above because I do not think they are viable but I could easily be proven wrong. Metagross-GX will remain a fringe option that can easily succeed with the right matchups (I will likely never consider this deck). Then there are murmurs of Decidueye/Ninetales slowly creeping its way back into the format, as well as more rogue decks like Xerneas BREAK and Rainbow Road.

I am still struggling to find a way out to Regionals this fall but I hope to be able to hit 1-2 before the Winter. Right now, it is looking like a last-second booking to Daytona is a potential option, but I am not certain. I am starting to feeling incredibly behind in my season but on the bright side, the more events I miss in the fall will only give me further time and resources to hopefully hit everything in 2018. I will definitely be attending Memphis and Dallas and realistically every Regionals within driving distance.

With that in mind, I hope you have enjoyed the article today and as always, please find me on Twitter or ask any questions you might have below.

Until next time!

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