Everything You Need to Know for Cities

Discussion in 'UG Article Talk' started by Crawdaunt, Nov 15, 2012.

  1. Crawdaunt

    Crawdaunt Active Member

  2. baby_mario

    baby_mario Doesn't even care

    The captions were little oases of happiness that stopped me feeling like I was being beaten to death with decklists.

    This is the kind of article that is very necessary before a tournament series and it was very comprehensive, with sound lists.

    Do you have any thoughts on straight Darkrai/Sableye (no Hammers)? Or Keldeo as a general tech against Paralysis lock?
  3. TechnoLegend

    TechnoLegend Active Member

    WOW.

    I love deck list articles especially right before a new format, and this one had a bunch! I was really hoping to see at least 1 Tornadus EX+Stuff deck list, with Landorus EX being such a huge threat, and Aspertia Gym being playable. Im also interested in baby_mario's questions to you. Speed Darkrai/Sableye would be very powerful with Keldeo i think.

    In your RayEels deck, i think having 2 emolgas would be really helpful agianst Landorus EX, especially since your list already has 2 Super Rod. makes it pretty easy to keep streaming Eels when you need them.
  4. DrMime

    DrMime Grand Poo-Bah

    Speaking of White Guys, it also looks like you're not a fan of Bouffalant DRX--most of your DCE-containing decks omit him. But against an EX-obsessed meta, I'd think he'd be pretty good. What do you think?
    TechnoLegend likes this.
  5. galladeava

    galladeava Disapproving Clown

    Why, Crawdaunt, did you have to do this to me?! I was so set on what I was going to play this weekend for Regs, I feel as though I'm to being torn between 3/4 decks. Going into an unknown meta which of the Hammers, HyRai, RaiTwo and DarkTerrak would you suggest?

    I'm happy playing all and have tested the lot, just wanted an opinion consistency wise. Which really is going to win the most games against a variety of decks?
  6. Crawdaunt

    Crawdaunt Active Member

    baby_mario Ah... I can always rely on you to comment on the captions. Haha. Thanks! Glad to know they helped. As for straight Darkrai/Sableye... It's consistent no doubt. You're powerful, and you've got more consistency cards than any other deck out there (it's practically a quad deck, but with energy accel). The big question I'd have to ask is... what are you filling in the extra space with? Without hammers you've got 5 slots to fill with whatever you want. I'd say you'd probably want to run 2ish Max Potion at that point for prize denial, and probably tech a Dark Claw to aid damage stacking. After that, you're still left with space so I guess something like an extra Tool Scrapper and keep the Switch.

    The only other card I can see worth the slots would be SSU. Overall, I'd say that it's a solid aggro deck, but I'd worry about my fighting matchup too much. If Landorus went first I'd be pretty boned for the rest of the game. And any deck running Terrakion NVI (ex: Ho-Oh) will rob your efforts at prize denial.

    Given the ridiculous amount of room that the deck has, I'd suggest supporting it with something for coverage. It's not like you're hurting for space. I don't see quad Darkrai as a way to win a tournament.

    TechnoLegend Truth be told I haven't tested much with Tornadus EX as it's own deck idea. The only decks I see it functioning well in are Darkrai/Mewtwo and Eels, and I don't think there's much to talk about with either of them. The "donk" chance isn't very good since most of the format is big basics, and unless you find room for pluspowers you'll still be 3HKO'ing 170HP EX's. And even with Pluspower, you'll likely be 3HKO'ing 180 HP EX's (Darkrai, Landorus), so I just see it being very underwhelming. Tornadus/Aerodactyl solves that, but I've tried the concept before and... I just don't like it. I'm not so worried about Landorus that I'd choose a deck that guarantees a win against it, while losing out against the rest of the format.

    As for Keldeo EX as a tech in multiple decks... The best deck I see it being run in is Darkrai/Hydreigon. Even without Prism it can still 2HKO Landorus, and it is your answer to parahax. HyRai is also a deck that can comfortably sit it on the bench without having to worry about space. The only other deck that might play it would be Eels. To be honest, I think a new breed of Eels could be born out of a focus on Keldeo EX. Something like Keldeo EX/Black Kyurem/Mewtwo might make for an interesting counter-meta build.

    ... I think I might have to write about that on TCGwHats next Monday. I really want to test that now! Haha! Keldeo EX w/ 1 Water + Black Kyurem 2HKO 170 HP EX's... Black Kyurem OHKO's Rayquazas... Keldeo prevents catcher stall so the deck can go light on switch. Mewtwo is just good. I really think there's something there!

    As for RayEels. You can run 2 Emolga to buffer the Tynamo starts, but I opted against it for space in the deck. My take on RayEels is "If you're convinced you still want to run RayEels, then clearly you don't have a high opinion of Landorus, so you might as well make the rest of your matchups as good as you can."

    DrMime Hmm... I'll be honest and say I didn't really consider Bouffalant DRX outside of BMT. The lists I could see him slotting into would be Ho-Oh, MewtwoEels and HydroPony. Ho-Oh... I prefer Regigigas in for the 80 damage, but that would be a solid swap. MewtwoEels he'd be good in, no doubt. Worth it over the other attackers listed there? I don't know considering the deck is trying to counter Landorus. HydroPony? Probably the best inclusion. It'd be nice to have a Pokemon like Bouffalant for the Darkrai matchup. I can see some potential there for sure. The guarantee of a 2HKO in that matchup would really help out (since he'd be fairly snipe proof). Of the above lists, I'd look to test Bouffalant DRX in Blastoise/Keldeo the most. :)

    galladeava Well as I said at the end, my pick is Hammers/Terrak, but that's because I'm expecting a Darkrai-heavy metagame. If I find people are enamoured with Landorus or HydroPony then I can easily change my list on the day of to a straight Hammers variant. If you're looking for the deck with the most solid matchups against a wide variety of decks, my opinion is that Hammertime is your deck of choice. I'd add that the Switch in my deck is easily exchanged for a Dark Claw, which I rather like in many matchups. Hope that helps!

    Thanks for all the responses!
  7. kazambolt

    kazambolt Meh.

    This is exactly my thoughts haha.

    Also, I'm not sure I agree with you about RayEels. It's a very good deck with good matchups all around. Just because it could be donked by Landorus doesn't mean you shouldn't play it, it just means you have to prepare for that.
  8. Crawdaunt

    Crawdaunt Active Member

    kazambolt Don't get me wrong, I love RayEels. But if you start a lone basic, 4/11 times (with my list) it'll be Tynamo. And against Landorus, half of those games you'll be donked. So that's almost 20% of your games against Landorus that end in donk. And against Landorus... really any game is difficult just by virtue of OHKO'ing Tynamos while setting up Eels for the KO next turn. You can't really prepare for that outside of throwing in more Potions, and even that doesn't really guarantee you a decent matchup :\ I just don't like decks with autolosses.
  9. MultX

    MultX I HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE TREVOR DECK

    I love these kind of articles. This article refreshed my look at this metagame
  10. Parenting101

    Parenting101 Active Member

    Great article Crawdaunt! Like the others have said, I was set on a deck and am now second/third/fourth guessing myself! :(

    Looking forward to seeing you on the 25th! Good luck this weekend if you are heading down south!
  11. pika1234

    pika1234 New Member

    I'd like to see your list for the teched out Darkrai/Terrakion. (The one that you said it has to be set up to your playstyle.)

    Overall, a very good article.

    However, there are a few things I disagree with.

    1. Eels is still out there. If you up the count of basics, starting with tynamo 1 out of 4 games is still fine. What are the odds that you start twice with a lone Tynamo and your opponent happens to play and start with Landorus EX? Even so, Mewtwo DCE and Rayquaza DRX were swarming Battle Roads. Why did players still continue to choose to play Eels, and still do well with it?

    2. Bouffalant is a great inclusion in most decks that play DCE. That 7th prize you force your opponent to take is crucial and it already hates the crap out of EXs. EX hate pokemon has always thrived, especially in this format.

    3. Tornadus EX is a contender. The introduction of Landorus EX will spike players interest in Tornadus EX. An eviolited Tornadus EX takes no damage from Landorus while 2HKOing it. This is a very good strategy as Landorus EX based decks mostly focus on aggressive early games and if Tornadus EX can stall and keep it out of play, that's great. Of course there's catcher, but burning through resources early game is just setting a deck like that back. Not to mention Tornadus EX still 2HKO's any pokemon in the format. There should have been more decks based on Tornadus EX IMO.

    4. A Keldeo EX inclusion in Darkrai EX does not mean switch is unnecessary. Yes, it gets free retreat from Darkrai EX and it is easily searchable with the new Skyla/Computer Search engine. That's 1 turn where you break the Paralysis lock, after you KO their Tynamo/Accelgor or hit Raikou, they can still come back with another one. What if they catcher Keldeo and continue the lock? A switch is mandatory. A stall tactic that doesn't work for 2 turns, is going to be dropped. 1 switch and 1 Keldeo is enough IMO. Even if they come back with a third Paralysis try, their going to have to waste a second catcher.

    Nonetheless, a very solid and in depth article Crawdaunt. +1!
    Crawdaunt likes this.
  12. kazambolt

    kazambolt Meh.

    But that's only if you start lone basic. There's like a 10% chance you even give your opponent the chance to donk you, and that's only 10% of maybe 2 games that you play against (out of 6 hopefully) so there's like a 3 percent chance of a donk if you look at it that way. I do agree that the early game can be scary against Landorus, but when you bait them into using their Catchers, you can Super Rod your life back and stream some Rayquaza and Rayquaza EX kills to take all 6 prizes in 4-5 turns at the end while they have nothing really to respond with.

    It's not the best matchup for RayEels, I agree with you there. It's not a good matchup even, but I wouldn't say it's an autoloss.
  13. Reshiphlosion

    Reshiphlosion The Swarm

    I really liked this article, but I do have one question. You said that your top play for cities would be hammertime + terrakion, so my question is how many terrakion/fighting energy do you think would be good for this deck and what would you drop from your current list to make room for it?

    thanks :D
  14. Crawdaunt

    Crawdaunt Active Member

    Parenting101 I hope that's a good thing! ^_^;

    pika1234 All very valid. Eels is still a top tier competitor. But Landorus isn't just scary because of donks. It's the ease of KO'ing eel after eel, all for only 1 energy and always starting on turn 1. Eels is going to win some Cities. But treat Landorus similar to facing a turn 1 Night Spear and you can understand why I would hesitate to play Eels in a format containing that.

    Tornadus EX is good, but it's a deck I see having a rough time with top tier threats. Decks like Hammertime, Eels (especially the random ZekEels still kicking around) and Ho-Oh all give Tornadus EX-centric decks a really hard time. And even Power Blast won't 2HKO through Eviolite on a big EX. I like Aspertia in the deck giving Tornadus that extra bulk throws off a lot of 2HKO's, but Eels could legitimately just Electric Ball to finish off a Tornadus. Skyla -> Comp Search -> DCE on the first turn has given Tornadus a T1 attacking option that's much better guaranteed, but will still need a Stadium to hit for 60 (not too difficult). It's a deck I don't like, but I'm not saying it's not a good deck.

    As for Keldeo EX in Darkrai/Hydreigon. It's true that they could catcher the Keldeo and re-stall. But if RayEels is reduced to a Tynamo/Raikou flip, it's often because you're about to win. Though it's true that they could paralyze again next turn, it's not something I would concern myself with greatly. The point of Keldeo > Switch is that it's Searchable by Ultra Ball, which is a card you're already running 4 of in your deck. And Ultra Ball is searchable by Skyla, just as Switch would be.

    kazambolt hmm... I'm not sure where you're getting those numbers from. I'll Calculate the odds here. I've got the probability of starting with a lone basic being 27.2% (using my list). 27.9% if you only have 10 basics.

    So if I get paired up against Landorus in top cut, I have a (0.272/2) chance of losing a game by donk. That's about a 13.6% chance I get donked. Say I make it through all 3 games without being donked once. Those odds are 64.5%. So against Landorus in a best of three, 35.5% of the time I'd lose at least once by donk. The other 64.5% of the time I'm still facing Landorus. That's not a 50/50... that's like a 30/70 at best.

    So I would put my odds of winning a best of 3 against Landorus at about 19.4%. I would consider a matchup you can only beat one fifth of the time in top cut an autoloss. Numbers! :D

    Reshiphlosion
    +3 Fighting
    +1 Terrakion
    +1 Energy Search
    -2 Dark
    -1 Switch
    -1 Ultra Ball
    -1 Enhanced Hammer (possibly an Energy Switch)

    But I really am not well-informed on the metagame I'll be facing. I live 4 hours away from the nearest major tournament, so I often like to practice beforehand with a deck that has the most well-rounded matchups available. Thus why I like Hammertime as my #1 choice. If I were more knowledgeable about my metagame, one of my other top picks (or maybe even one on the outside) could make it in.
  15. Reshiphlosion

    Reshiphlosion The Swarm

    Thanks! :D

    as for the metagame part, I have almost no idea what I'll be facing either and there aren't many major tournaments in my area as well, so hammertime is one of the options I'm really considering (mainly because I don't have to buy a ton of new cards for the deck to work...)
  16. Parenting101

    Parenting101 Active Member

    Crawdaunt It's always a good thing! As long as I get the upperhand if we face each other of course! ;)
  17. daGlaceon

    daGlaceon Still Can't See

    Nothing on Aerodactyl?
  18. kazambolt

    kazambolt Meh.

    Unless you meant 27% of opening lone Tynamo, then there's a flaw in that reasoning. So, I'll just calculate it once and for all based on this article by Jason K. http://www.pojo.com/CardofTheDay/2005/12-06-06.shtml

    I personally play 12 basics in my list so I'll calculate by that. With 4 Tynamo, there is a 60.05% chance to miss the Tynamo in the starting hand.

    Now, assuming you do draw a Tynamo, lets look at the chance that we don't get any other of our 11 basics in the same hand. That chance is 27.2%. So, there is a 16.3% chance that you will open lone Tynamo with 12 basics, 4 being Tynamo. I'm not compensating for mulligans like Jason did because we're playing many more basics in our list than he was in that one.

    The other numbers in my calculations came from the times you go second and the amount of games you'll play Landorus in a tournament. Since we see that there is a 16.3% chance to open lone Tynamo, there is only an 8% chance to go second and also open lone Tynamo. If you then account for the fact that your opponent will not be playing Landorus every round, and the fact that they could mulligan or open with a less favorable starter, it just gets less and less.

    I didn't mean to turn this into such a charade haha, it's not that important really. I'll admit that the matchup isn't your best, and can be an uphill battle for sure. However, if you play it in a way that you can set up, Rayquaza and Rayquaza EX can give any Landorus player some difficulties.
  19. Crawdaunt

    Crawdaunt Active Member

    kazambolt Haha no worries! I love these sorts of discussions. And to be honest I know my approach was a bit flawed in how I approached the best of 3 scenario. Jason wrote out the "n choose x" formula there. In Excel it's labeled COMBIN. You can use =COMBIN(56,7), and =COMBIN(60,7) to reach that 60.05% in the future :)

    And I don't know how I managed to forget to apply the odds of lone tynamo rather than just any lone basic, but I did >.> So yes, that 27.2 is not lone tynamo, but any lone basic.

    Correcting for all this, and taking into account the mulligans not accounted for:

    Odds lone Tynamo - 15.94%
    Odds going 2nd and lone Tynamo - 7.97%

    Now to fix this part, since I didn't take into account that the probability of starting second all 3 games is impossible. I think it would work better to instead calculate some fictitious chance of losing a best of 3 period, rather than just the chance of being donked in that best of 3. The reason being there are many scenarios where you can go 2nd and not get donked, but lose anyways, leading to another chance of getting donked G3 etc... So calculating just the chance of losing by donk doesn't really tell you much about the matchup as a whole.

    So for this, I'll say Landorus.dec is 85% at donking when it goes 1st against lone Tynamo. And I'll just put the matchup at a straight 50/50, so as to illustrate how much the donk factor swings the best of 3. (edit: will come back to this later, g2g run a tournament).

    Edit: K so I've now got the odds of getting donked at least once in a best of 3 as being 31.3% (26.6% with 85% donk efficiency).

    So assuming that's all correct, about 1/4 of best of 3 matches give the Landorus player at least 1 free win. Leaving the Eels players to play 3/4 of their matches with normal games, assuming 50/50 matchup. So if we were to say that every best of 3 with a donk led to a loss for the RayEels player (50/50 would assume this to be the appropriate mean), then 37.5% of Best of 3's would go to RayEels, while 62.5% of Best of 3's would go to Landorus.

    Therefore, assuming the matchups is 50/50, the donk chance Landorus gets gives it a 12.5% boost in the Best of 3. Assuming the matchup is 50/50.
  20. kazambolt

    kazambolt Meh.

    I just played against a Landorus heavy deck (actually, Landorus/Mewtwo/Garbodor) for 6 games, 3-3, donked 0 times but without his 4 mulligans the last one (which I ended up losing) would have been a donk as well.

    I think the matchup gets a lot better with 2 Rayquaza regular as they can Shred through Eviolite and don't often get knocked out (30+80 doesn't work, Mewtwo is a problem though). Also, Emolga is a GREAT starter in the matchup and makes a ton of a difference.

    The games I lost were the ones where I prized my Super Rod and/or discarded it and several Catcher early game. The ones where I won were the ones that I either drew sick or was able to get Eels set up on either my 3rd turn going first or my 2nd turn going 2nd.

    Basically, I have to add a 2nd Super Rod to my list, and hope to start Emolga. I only led Tynamo twice, and went 2nd once of those times so that does feed into the odds we were concocting.